Turcija samazina procentu likmi līdz 42,5%, inflācijai sasniedza divu gadu zemāko līmeni

Turcijas centrālā banka ceturtdien samazināja bāzes procentu likmi par 2,5 procentpunktiem, kas ir jau trešais samazinājums pēc kārtas, reaģējot uz inflācijas palēnināšanos valstī.

Turcija ceturtdien pazemināja vienas nedēļas likmi no 45% līdz 42,5%. Šāds lēmums pieņemts pēc tam, kad oficiālie dati liecināja, ka gada inflācija pirmo reizi gandrīz divu gadu laikā ir noslīdējusi zem 40%.

Paziņojumā, kas tika izplatīts pēc komitejas sēdes, banka norādīja, ka tā pārskatīs inflācijas tendences un piesardzīgi koriģēs likmes gaidāmajās politikas sanāksmēs.

“Lai gan inflācijas gaidas un cenu veidošanas tendence uzlabojas, tās turpina radīt riskus deinflācijas procesam,” norādīja banka. “Monetārās politikas instrumenti tiks efektīvi izmantoti gadījumā, ja tiks prognozēta būtiska un ilgstoša inflācijas pasliktināšanās.”

Saskaņā ar Turcijas Statistikas institūta datiem gada inflācija Turcijā februārī palēninājās līdz 39,1% no 42,1% iepriekšējā mēnesī. Tomēr neatkarīgu ekonomistu grupa ir paudusi bažas par oficiālajiem inflācijas rādītājiem un lēš, ka tas ir ievērojami augstāks.

Augstā inflācija Turcijā ir saistīta ar vairāku faktoru kopumu, tostarp enerģijas cenu pieaugumu un COVID-19 pandēmijas izraisītajām ekonomiskajām sekām.

Analītiķi vaino arī prezidenta Redžepa Tajipa Erdogana pagātnes ekonomisko politiku, kurš netradicionāli nolēma pazemināt procentu likmes, ņemot vērā inflācijas kāpumu. Erdogans jau sen ir apgalvojis, ka augstas procentu likmes izraisa inflāciju, kas ir pretrunā galvenajai ekonomikas teorijai.

2023.gadā prezidents Erdogans iecēla jaunu ekonomikas komandu, liecinot par pāreju no viņa neparastās politikas. Komanda sākotnēji īstenoja vairākus procentu likmju paaugstinājumus, lai cīnītos pret inflāciju.

Vairākus mēnešus saglabājot procentu likmi 50% līmenī, banka ir uzsākusi pakāpenisku likmju samazināšanas ciklu.

Procentu likmju samazinājums ir ietekmējis arī Turcijas valūtu un investīciju vidi. Pēc jaunākā centrālās bankas lēmuma Turcijas lira saglabāja relatīvu stabilitāti, tomēr ilgtermiņā investori joprojām ir piesardzīgi.

Zemākas procentu likmes var stimulēt vietējo ekonomiku, taču tās arī rada spiedienu uz liru, kas pēdējos gados ir būtiski zaudējusi vērtību. Investori turpina rūpīgi sekot līdzi monetārās politikas attīstībai, lai novērtētu iespējamās izmaiņas kapitāla plūsmās.

Iedzīvotājiem un uzņēmējiem procentu likmju samazināšana nozīmē pieejamākus kredītus, kas var veicināt patēriņu un uzņēmējdarbības izaugsmi. Tomēr augstā inflācija joprojām mazina iedzīvotāju pirktspēju, un daudzi turpina saskarties ar augstām dzīves dārdzības izmaksām. Īpaši smagi inflācija skārusi pārtikas un mājokļa segmentus, kas joprojām ir galvenie izdevumu posteņi lielai daļai Turcijas iedzīvotāju.

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